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Assessing the Sharks trade outlook
With the NHL trade deadline just six weeks away and
the Sharks in desperate need of a shutdown defenseman, there is no shortage of
players the Sharks could be targeting. Acquiring a player via a trade will
require the Sharks to actually give something up. Any impending deal will
require the subtraction of current roster players, prospects, draft picks, cash
or any combination of those assets.
San Jose will also have to deal
with the NHL salary cap, which they are within $1.3 million of exceeding. That
means that the Sharks won't be acquiring any big money players without dumping
some of the big salaries currently on the roster. Teams that are shopping money
players are less likely to take on big contracts, because most sellers are
trying to create cap space for the upcoming free agent signing period or
building with younger, lower priced players.
So while sending cash to
a team for players is one option, taking on salary is something that will
handcuff San Jose. They have plenty of salary to send packing, but it'll be
hard to find takers.
As for draft picks, Sharks General Manager Doug
Wilson has leaned on this asset to swing deals in the past. The issue is, he
has few draft picks to play with, because of his past dealings. The big
question is, does Wilson mortgage the future by shipping the few top picks that
he has left and eliminating his ability to build via the draft?
In
2011, he has 1st, 2nd, 3rd and two 6th round picks to play with. Anaheim
controls his 4th round pick (Kent Huskins/Travis Moen acquisition), Atlanta
controls his 5th (Ben Eager), and Pittsburgh controls his 7th (Penguins 2010
7th round pick). Wilson controls all of his 2012 picks with the exception of
this 4th round pick, which he also lost to Anaheim in the Huskins/Moen deal.
In terms of roster players, everyone is fair game. Question is, who is
a logical fit for another team and do the Sharks want to move them in order to
clear roster space, salary or because they really want to land another player.
Here's my take on handicapping the current Sharks roster and the trade outlook
for each player.
Dany Heatley
Trade Odds: 30:1
2010/11
Contract: $7,500,000
Years Remaining: 3
Trade Outlook: Heatley brings a
big offensive upside, but he's a defensive liability. He's been a model citizen
in san Jose, but league GMs all remember how Heatley forced the Senators to
deal him. If he were to be dealt, it's to a contender looking for offense and
willing to give up a big money defenseman. His contract is also a big obstacle
for any deal.
Joe Thornton
Trade Odds: 50:1
2010/11
Contract: $7,200,000
Years Remaining: 3
Trade Outlook: Thornton's trade
value is still high because of the value he brings as a setup man, bus his
scoring numbers have decreased each of the last three years. Given that
Thornton wears the C, it's unlikely that Wilson would trade his team leader.
Wilson also believes Thornton is one of the pieces key to getting the Sharks
over the hump.
Patrick Marleau
Trade Odds: 15:1
2010/11
Contract: $6,900,000
Years Remaining: 3
Trade Outlook: Marleau comes
relatively cheap for his offensive upside, but it seems unlikely the Sharks
give up their former captain after the season he had a year ago. Problem is
that was a contract year and Marleau's numbers have significantly dropped off
this season. A lengthy dry-spell didn't bode well for Marleau, but so long as
the Sharks are buyers, Marleau isn't going anywhere…this season. If the
Sharks pull off a blockbuster, Marleau is most likely involved.
Joe
Pavelski
Trade Odds: 50:1
2010/11 Contract: $4,000,000
Years
Remaining: 3
Trade Outlook: Pavelski's age and maturity on the ice make him
a highly coveted asset, and could be targeted by a either a contender or a team
that's rebuilding. Given that, the 2010 Silver Medalist seems like an unlikely
target for Wilson. With the Big 3 cresting the 30-year old mark, Pavelski
represents the next generation of Sharks top line players.
Ryane
Clowe
Trade Odds: 30:1
2010/11 Contract: $3,625,000
Years
Remaining: 2
Trade Outlook: After a slow start, Clowe has been one of the
Sharks most reliable players as of late. Clowe also represents one of the few
players that can play both a skill and power game. Anything is possible, but he
sharks need to add more players like Clowe, not ship them away.
Devin Setoguchi
Trade Odds: 3:1
2010/11
Contract: $1,800,000
Years Remaining: 0 (RFA)
Trade Outlook: Setoguchi
is one of the Sharks biggest bargaining chips, because of his age, upside, and
restricted free agent status. His vanishing act for the majority of this season
has not endeared him to Wilson. His numbers last season make him an attractive
player, and the reasonable price tag make him that much more attractive.
Torrey Mitchell
Trade Odds: 10:1
2010/11 Contract:
$1,366,667
Years Remaining: 1
Trade Outlook: Mitchell just hasn't been
able to match the play that made him a surprise addition to the roster his
rookie season. After his injury in training camp the following year has been a
setback that Mitchell hasn't been able to shed as a red flag on his resume.
He's also been too inconsistent on the offensive side of the puck, which make
him expendable. Problem is, is there any GM willing to take him.
Logan Couture
Trade Odds: 100:1
2010/11 Contract:
$1,241,667
Years Remaining: 1
Trade Outlook: The Calder Trophy
candidate has been the Sharks best offensive player this season, and his
potential make him almost untouchable. Teams interested in acquiring him would
have to make insane offers to land the Sharks top prospect.
Jamie
McGinn
Trade Odds: 6:1
2010/11 Contract: $996,667
Years
Remaining: 0 (RFA)
Trade Outlook: The only thing McGinn has going for him
as a trade prospect is his restricted free agent status. It's hard to define
the 4th year player's role, which means it'll be equally difficult for an
inquiring GM to figure out how to use McGinn. He's not a goal scorer or setup
man, nor is he a penalty killer or agitator. McGinn has been limited to
checking line duty, but given the Sharks penchant to surrender goals this
season, that's not necessarily going to catch any GMs attention.
Scott Nichol
Trade Odds: 20:1
2010/11 Contract:
$760,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade Outlook: Nichol serves a very
distinct role, but given his age and unrestricted free agent status at the end
of this season, it's unlikely that any GM would actively persue a player like
Nichol. Nichol's role is likely to diminish during a playoff run, so why would
any team take him in trade. If they want him next season, he's available for
the taking via free agency.
Benn Ferriero
Trade Odds: 10:1
2010/11 Contract: $850,000
Years Remaining: 0 (RFA)
Trade
Outlook: While not a top line prospect, Ferriero becomes an interesting option
for some GMs. His blend of size and scoring potential make him intriguing
option. He's a cheap option for a tea trying to build with young players and
he's one of the Sharks top offensive prospects.
Jamal Mayers
Trade Odds: 20:1
2010/11 Contract: $600,000
Years Remaining: 0
(UFA)
Trade Outlook: Like Nichol, Mayers is on the downside of his career
and his age makes him a tough sell for teams. Contenders don't typically go
after enforcers late in the season, and Mayer's game doesn't provide much in
terms of marketable skills for Cup contenders. He's also an unrestricted free
agent at the end of the season.
John McCarthy
Trade Odds:
15:1
2010/11 Contract: $550,000
Years Remaining: 0 (RFA)
Trade
Outlook: McCarthy is another interesting prospect that could be coveted by
teams looking to build with youngsters.
Ben Eager
Trade
Odds: 50:1
2010/11 Contract: $965,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade Outlook: The role player was acquired on Wednesday to bring more grit to
the Sharks lineup. With Ryane Clowe on the shelf, Eager's becomes more
pronounced. The Sharks will need Eager's presence on the ice should they make
the playoffs. His UFA status at the end of the season doesn't make him that
endearing to GMs looking to deal this season.
Kyle Wellwood
Trade Odds: 5:1
2010/11 Contract: $650,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade Outlook: The Sharks acquired Welwood by placing a waiver claim on
the former Vancouver Canucks, blocking the St Louis Blues from picking up the
forward. Don't be surprised if Wellwood is set packing as part of another deal
that Wilson is working on. With Clowe and Mitchell still on the injured list,
Wellwood becomes an offensive option that could be a stop gap until those
players return.
Dan Boyle
Trade Odds: 75:1
2010/11
Contract: $6,666,667
Years Remaining: 3
Trade Outlook: It's unlikely
Wilson moves the offensive minded defenseman. Boyle has everything the Sharks
need in a blueliner, and if anything, they need to plug holes in the defense,
not create them.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Trade Odds: 30:1
2010/11 Contract: $3,100,000
Years Remaining: 2
Trade Outlook: With
Boyle getting long in the tooth, Vlasic is the future of the Sharks defense.
He's struggled with the departure of Rob Blake, because more responsibility has
been placed on his shoulders, but he's still someone the Sharks expect to lean
on for a long time.
Douglas Murray
Trade Odds: 15:1
2010/11 Contract: $2,500,000
Years Remaining: 2
Trade Outlook: The
big hitting defenseman is one of the reasons the Sharks are in need of
defensive help. His skating ability was already a liability, but combined with
increased minutes, it's been clearly exposed. If there's a team looking for a
wrecking ball to place on their backline, Murray fits the bill. Wilson should
grab whatever he can get for the rugged defenseman if suitors come calling.
Niklas Wallin
Trade Odds: 15:1
2010/11 Contract:
$2,500,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade Outlook: Wallin was
supposed to be the missing piece to the defense last year, but his stay at home
style provided little in stopping the speedy Blackhawks attack. Given that San
Jose's woes are centered around the defense, Wallin could be the odd man out,
but moving him becomes difficult given his age and UFA status at the end of the
season. Wallin only become a viable trade candidate if the Sharks are dumping
players as sellers. That would require a complete collapse between now and the
trade deadline.
Kent Huskins
Trade Odds: 10:1
2010/11
Contract: $1,700,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade Outlook: Huskins
has been one of the sore spots on the backline this season, so his value to
other GMs is most likely minimal. If he gets shipped, it will most likely come
as part of a package that helps the Sharks free up some cap space as part of a
bigger deal.
Jason Demers
Trade Odds: 10:1
2010/11
Contract: $543,333
Years Remaining: 2
Trade Outlook: Demers is
another youngster that Wilson most likely doesn't want to deal, but becomes a
more likely candidate because of his age, price and upside. San Jose may have
to give up on the youngster to acquire a top 2 or 3 defenseman.
Derek Joslin
Trade Odds: 15:1
2010/11 Contract:
$500,000
Years Remaining: 0 (RFA)
Trade Outlook: This may be Joslin's
last go-round at the Sharks rodeo. Given the opportunity to play every day,
he's missed his chance at convincing that he's a long term option. With this
contract expiring, look for the Sharks to try and move him before cutting ties
outright in the off-season.
Antti Niemi
Trade Odds: 10:1
2010/11 Contract: $2,000,000
Years Remaining: 0 (UFA)
Trade
Outlook: The Sharks brought Niemi into the fold thinking they would be riding
an extended wave following his Stanley Cup winning season a year ago. Problem
is, he doesn't have the 2009-10 Blackhawks defense playing in front of him. San
Jose has tried to get him on track with more playing time, but that could turn
out to be more of an audition if the Sharks try to swing a deal to acquire
Tomas Vokoun from Florida.
Antero Niittymaki
Trade Odds:
9:1
2010/11 Contract: $2,000,000
Years Remaining: 1
Trade
Outlook: If Vokoun is really in Wilson's sites, either Niittymaki or Niemi has
to go. Niittymaki becomes more likely, because the Sharks don't need a
$2,000,000 backup next season. If a deal for Vokoun were to play out, they
could shed Niittymaki's contract in exchange, and let Niemi walk at the end of
this season.
And then there are prospects that may be of interest to
other teams. In no particular order, some of the players that could draw
inquiries:
Justin Braun - skilled defenseman that showed flashes in
his brief NHL stint
Brandon Mashinter - Big left wing with some
offensive up side
Alex Stalock - The Sharks goaltender of the
future
Charlie Coyle - Top pick last year.
Nick Petrecki -
Best defensive prospect in the system
William Wrenn - Right behind
Petrecki and Braun on the D depth chart
Tommy Wingels - Wide open
centerman, will be a fan favorite
Mike Moore - Big defenseman, got a
taste of the big time earlier this season
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